Blacksmiths in 1900 and PowerBuilder developers in 1996 have something in common: they thought their job was safe forever. Yet circumstances proved them wrong. One of the nagging concerns for developers is how do you predict the Next Big Thing, preferably before you find yourself dinosaurized. This keynote discusses why people are bad at predicting the future, and why picking the Next Big Thing is hard. Then, it foolishly does just that: tries to predict the future. I also provide some guidelines on how to polish your crystal ball, giving you tools to help ferret out upcoming trends. Don’t get caught by the rising tide of the next major coolness: nothing’s sadder than an unemployed farrier watching cars drive by.
Neal is Director, Software Architect, and Meme Wrangler
at ThoughtWorks, a software company and a community of
passionate, purpose-led individuals, who thinks disruptively to
deliver technology to address the toughest challenges, all while
seeking to revolutionize the IT industry and create positive social
change. He is an internationally recognized expert on software
development and delivery, especially in the intersection of agile
engineering techniques and software architecture. Neal has authored
magazine articles, seven books (and counting), dozens of video
presentations, and spoken at hundreds of developers conferences
worldwide. His topics include software architecture, continuous
delivery, functional programming, cutting edge software innovations, and includes a business-focused book and video on improving technical presentations. Check out his web site at nealford.com.
